Friday, March 25, 2011
Monty Hall Solution
The answer is that you switch. If you switch you have a 2/3 chance of switching to a car, rather than switching to a goat. There is a very elegant Bayesian explanation but I plan to use a tree diagram in class so here it is (stolen from wikipedia.)
Monday, March 21, 2011
Monty Hall
I had a really, really busy winter term and didn't get a chance to post anything to this blog. I was just barely keeping up with my grading. Spring term should be better.
I am teaching a new class next term. The first topic in the class is combinatorics followed by probability -- 2 of my FAVORITES. So I am planning to lead off with the Monty Hall problem. (Again, one of my all time favorite problems.)
Here it is -- see if you can figure it out.
You are a contestant on a game show. You must choose 1 of 3 unmarked doors. Behind 1 door is a sports car and behind the other 2 doors are donkeys. You choose one door. The host then opens one of the doors you DIDN'T choose and shows you a donkey. Do you stay with your original choice or do you switch doors?
I am teaching a new class next term. The first topic in the class is combinatorics followed by probability -- 2 of my FAVORITES. So I am planning to lead off with the Monty Hall problem. (Again, one of my all time favorite problems.)
Here it is -- see if you can figure it out.
You are a contestant on a game show. You must choose 1 of 3 unmarked doors. Behind 1 door is a sports car and behind the other 2 doors are donkeys. You choose one door. The host then opens one of the doors you DIDN'T choose and shows you a donkey. Do you stay with your original choice or do you switch doors?
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